PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INKLUSIF SEBAGAI DETERMINANPENGANGGURAN STRUKTURAL DAN KETIMPANGAN PENDAPATAN: BUKTI EMPIRIS DARI INDONESIA 2014–2024
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.58174/39crbb87Keywords:
Inclusive Economic Growth; Structural Unemployment; Income Inequality; Panel Data; Gini RatioAbstract
High economic growth does not automatically generate evenly distributed benefits for all layers of society, particularly in addressing persistent and complex structural unemployment and income inequality. This study aims to analyze the effect of inclusive economic growth as a determinant of structural unemployment and income inequality in Indonesia during the 2014–2024 period using a quantitative approach based on panel secondary data from 34 Indonesian provinces over 11 years of observation. The analysis method used is panel data regression with Fixed Effects Model and Random Effects Model selected based on the Hausman test, producing a total of 374 observations analyzed using EViews 12 and STATA 17. The results confirm that inclusive economic growth has a significant negative effect on the structural unemployment rate (coefficient = −0.387; p < 0.001) and a significant negative effect on income inequality measured through the Gini ratio (coefficient = −0.214; p < 0.01), with within R-squared of 0.682 for the unemployment model and 0.614 for the inequality model. Human capital investment proxied through the Human Development Index has a significant partial mediating effect in the transmission mechanism of inclusive growth on both dependent variables. Validation with the latest 2025 data shows growth of 5.11 percent, Open Unemployment Rate of 4.85 percent, and Gini ratio of 0.375 — a pattern highly consistent with panel model predictions. This study provides strong empirical evidence-based policy recommendations for directing Indonesia's economic growth to be more inclusive through strengthening vocational education, infrastructure investment for interregional equity, MSME empowerment, and well-targeted and measurable social protection programs.
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