PERAMALAN PERMINTAAN SEBAGAI BASIS OPTIMALISASI MANAJEMEN PERSEDIAAN: ANALISIS DAMPAK KETIDAKPASTIAN PERMINTAAN TERHADAP KINERJA RANTAI PASOKAN PERUSAHAAN

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the role of demand forecasting as the basis for inventory management optimization and to measure the impact of demand uncertainty on corporate supply chain performance in Indonesia. Consumer demand uncertainty is one of the most critical operational challenges faced by modern companies, as it directly affects inventory decisions, production capacity, and overall supply chain efficiency. This study employs a quantitative method with panel data analysis involving 92 companies operating in the manufacturing, retail, and distribution sectors listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the period 2020-2024. Data were collected from annual financial reports and structured surveys targeting senior supply chain and operations managers. Analysis was conducted using panel data regression with Fixed Effects Model selected based on Chow Test and Hausman Test results, supported by comparative analysis of forecasting methods using Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) indicators. The results indicate that demand forecasting accuracy has a positive and highly significant effect on supply chain performance measured through inventory turnover ratio, service level, and total inventory costs (β = 0.423; R² = 0.714; p < 0.001), and companies using formal quantitative forecasting methods achieve an average MAPE 8.3% lower with inventory costs 24.7% more efficient than those relying on managerial intuition. These findings confirm that investment in an accurate demand forecasting system is an indispensable strategic prerequisite for inventory management optimization and comprehensive, sustainable improvement of supply chain performance.